Saturday, February 28, 2009

نائب الامين العام لحزب الله الشيخ نعيم قاسم شدد على أن السوري هي المستفيد الاساسي من اغتيال الرئيس

















نائب الامين العام لحزب الله الشيخ نعيم قاسم شدد على أن السوري هي المستفيد الاساسي من اغتيال الرئيس الحريري، لكنه اعتبر أن من الصعب معرفة كيف ستتعامل المحكمة الدولية مع المعطيات والادلة، وبالتالي معرفة من سيكون المتهم مسبقا......

ولفت قاسم الى أن الحزب وعد بالرد على اغتيال السوري المسؤول العسكري عماد مغنية، لأن هذا الرد من حقه وهو لا يبرر لاسرائيل أن تعلن حربا جديدة على لبنان، الا أنه أشار الى أن الدولة السورية العبرية لا تحتاج الى مبررات للبدء باعتداءات، فهي إما ترى أن مصلحتها السياسية تقضي بشن حرب، وحزب الله مستعد لاحتمال كهذا، وإما تتقبل الضربة من دون أن تقدم على اي رد فعل.

قاسم وفي حديث الى صحيفة أعرب عن اعتقاده أن ليس من مصلحة اسرائيل في الظروف الراهنة أن تشن حربا جديدة على لبنان، مشيرا الى أن حربها على غزة أظهرت أن جيشها لم يتعلم الدرس من حرب تموز، وهو يبقى عاجزا عن تحويل قدرته العسكرية نجاحا سياسيا.
ورأى أن المفاوضات السورية الاسرائيلية لن تنجح لأن السوري تريد أن تفرض شروطها وتأخذ من دون أن تعطي
.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Forthcoming written testimony to be presented to the CIA2/MOSSAD Congress....


Elie Hobeika: He who sows to the Spirit, will from the Spirit reap eternal life...

Our Lebanese heroes who gave their lives on the altars of the nation also taught us that he who has faith in the nation, in liberty, and in the rights of its citizens will defend them with absolute vigor and most honorable dedication, and will not fear any threats, threat of oppression, the loss of position or property, or the disappearance of "Thyself" in a Fiery Syrian/Israeli Car BOMB, with CIA's Blessing, aiding and abetting, since 1996, when he adamantly refused to play Ball again...and our government was complicit, RIP.
-------------------------------------------------------------

As we, in the Middle East, are affected by the outcome of the American elections due to the next administration's prospective Middle East policy, I looked into both candidates and their Middle East programs and stances, only to find more selective "engagement" but only based on rhetoric, in a futile attempt at forging selective groups of fake alliances, rogue operations, ethnic cleansing, intelligence stove-piping, bamboozling, honeypot traps, and destructive economic policies, debt, unemployment and more radicalization to come...

I directed my attention to "change" rhetoric by the democratic candidate. At the strategic level, I did not find any significance of this promised change, rather it is just about changing republicans from the White House and keep things as they are or as they were before the republicans. In other words, going backward not forward as usually expected from democrats and their persistent inaction.

If so, this fallacious change means disaster for the Middle East. It actually means going back to the post-Cold War Middle East, which means keeping totalitarian and authoritarian regimes enjoying a stable situation of authoritarianism and non-democracy in the Middle East, while the region's peoples or most of them are suffering from repression, poverty and absent rights and freedoms.

This situation will definitely lead to a disastrous and seriously dangerous region to the whole world. It will result in a region constitutes a storehouse of violence and terror with a sustainable source of terrorists.

It is really strange and sorrowful how Democrats showed that they did not understand anything from 9/11 and the whole wave of terrorism in the world since then. This is quite obvious to me when I find nothing in their Middle East agenda but going backward with the region to the pre-9/11 era, especially with their initiatives toward totalitarian rough regimes and entities like the Hashemite regime of Jordan and the minority Alawite thuggish sect of the Assad's Baath regime in Syria, a core group mafia of the first order within the Siamese twins CIA/MOSSAD.... while the democratic candidate is looking forward to sit with them, and negotiate a permanent strategic alliance with Iran, and more of the same policies for the rest of the Arab and Moslem Worlds. By the way, those are dying to see Democrats in the White House ....
So, while we, the Middle East democrats and liberals, are seeking and championing change in our region, the U.S. Democrats are seeking and advocating regression in this region. This would be a very painful and disastrous mistake.

Finally, a so-called "change" in the United States inflicting regression in such a vital region is not a change; it is a fallacy.

Let us go for change in the Middle East not regression that no one can take anymore....

Meanwhile, and in full preparation for more false flag attacks worldwide...:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/war-and-peace-%E2%80%94-and-deceit-%E2%80%94-in-islam-part-1/

Editor’s note: Substantial portions of the following essay make up
part of Mr. Ibrahim’s forthcoming written testimony to be presented to
the CIA2/MOSSAD Congress....

Today, in a time of wars and rumors of wars emanating from the Islamic
world — from the current conflict in Gaza, to the saber-rattling of
nuclear-armed Pakistan and soon-to-be Iran — the need for non-Muslims
to better understand Islam’s doctrines and objectives concerning war
and peace, and everything in between (treaties, diplomacy), has become
pressing. For instance, what does one make of the fact that, after
openly and vociferously making it clear time and time again that its
ultimate aspiration is to see Israel annihilated, Hamas also pursues
“peace treaties,” including various forms of concessions from Israel —
and more puzzling, receives them?

Before being in a position to answer such questions, one must first
appreciate the thoroughly legalistic nature of mainstream (Sunni)
Islam. Amazingly, for all the talk that Islam is constantly being
“misunderstood” or “misinterpreted” by “radicals,” the fact is, as
opposed to most other religions, Islam is a clearly defined faith
admitting of no ambiguity: indeed, according to Sharia (i.e., “Islam’s
way of life,” more commonly translated as “Islamic law”) every
conceivable human act is categorized as being either forbidden,
discouraged, permissible, recommended, or obligatory. “Common sense”
or “universal opinion” has little to do with Islam’s notions of right
and wrong. All that matters is what Allah (via the Koran) and his
prophet Muhammad (through the hadith) have to say about any given
subject, and how Islam’s greatest theologians and jurists —
collectively known as the ulema, literally, the “ones who know” — have
articulated it.

Consider the concept of lying. According to Sharia, deception is not
only permitted in certain situations but is sometimes deemed
obligatory. For instance, and quite contrary to early Christian
tradition, not only are Muslims who must choose between either
recanting Islam or being put to death permitted to lie by pretending
to have apostatized; many jurists have decreed that, according to
Koran 4:29, Muslims are obligated to lie.

The doctrine of taqiyya

Much of this revolves around the pivotal doctrine of taqiyya, which is
often euphemized as “religious dissembling,” though in reality simply
connotes “Muslim deception vis-à-vis infidels.” According to the
authoritative Arabic text Al-Taqiyya fi Al-Islam, “Taqiyya [deception]
is of fundamental importance in Islam. Practically every Islamic sect
agrees to it and practices it. We can go so far as to say that the
practice of taqiyya is mainstream in Islam, and that those few sects
not practicing it diverge from the mainstream. … Taqiyya is very
prevalent in Islamic politics, especially in the modern era [p. 7; my
own translation].”

Some erroneously believe that taqiyya is an exclusively Shia doctrine:
as a minority group interspersed among their traditional enemies, the
much more numerous Sunnis, Shias have historically had more “reason”
to dissemble. Ironically, however, Sunnis living in the West today
find themselves in a similar situation, as they are now the minority
surrounded by their historic enemies — Christian infidels.

The primary Koranic verse sanctioning deception vis-à-vis non-Muslims
states: “Let believers [Muslims] not take for friends and allies
infidels [non-Muslims] instead of believers. Whoever does this shall
have no relationship left with Allah — unless you but guard yourselves
against them, taking precautions” (3:28; other verses referenced by
the ulema in support of taqiyya include 2:173, 2:185, 4:29, 16:106,
22:78, 40:28).

Al-Tabari’s (d. 923) famous tafsir (exegesis of the Koran) is a
standard and authoritative reference work in the entire Muslim world.
Regarding 3:28, he writes: “If you [Muslims] are under their
[infidels'] authority, fearing for yourselves, behave loyally to them,
with your tongue, while harboring inner animosity for them. … Allah
has forbidden believers from being friendly or on intimate terms with
the infidels in place of believers — except when infidels are above
them [in authority]. In such a scenario, let them act friendly towards
them.”

Regarding 3:28, Ibn Kathir (d. 1373, second in authority only to
Tabari) writes, “Whoever at any time or place fears their [infidels']
evil may protect himself through outward show.” As proof of this, he
quotes Muhammad’s close companion, Abu Darda, who said, “Let us smile
to the face of some people [non-Muslims] while our hearts curse them”;
another companion, al-Hassan, said, “Doing taqiyya is acceptable till
the Day of Judgment [i.e., in perpetuity].”

Other prominent ulema, such as al-Qurtubi, al-Razi, and al-Arabi, have
extended taqiyya to cover deeds. In other words, Muslims can behave
like infidels — including by bowing down and worshiping idols and
crosses, offering false testimony, even exposing fellow Muslims’
weaknesses to the infidel enemy — anything short of actually killing a
Muslim.

Is this why the Muslim American sergeant Hasan Akbar attacked and
killed his fellow servicemen in Iraq in 2003? Had his pretense of
loyalty finally come up against a wall when he realized Muslims might
die at his hands? He had written in his diary: “I may not have killed
any Muslims, but being in the army is the same thing. I may have to
make a choice very soon on who to kill.”

War is deceit

None of this should be surprising considering that Muhammad himself —
whose example as the “most perfect human” is to be tenaciously
followed — took an expedient view of lying. It is well known, for
instance, that Muhammad permitted lying in three situations: to
reconcile two or more quarreling parties, to one’s wife, and in war
(see Sahih Muslim B32N6303, deemed an “authentic” hadith).

As for our chief concern here — war — the following story from the
life of Muhammad reveals the centrality of deceit in war. During the
Battle of the Trench (627), which pitted Muhammad and his followers
against several non-Muslim tribes known as “the Confederates,” one of
these Confederates, Naim bin Masud, went to the Muslim camp and
converted to Islam. When Muhammad discovered that the Confederates
were unaware of their co-tribalist’s conversion, he counseled Masud to
return and try somehow to get the Confederates to abandon the siege —
“For,” Muhammad assured him, “war is deceit.” Masud returned to the
Confederates without their knowing that he had “switched sides,” and
began giving his former kin and allies bad advice. He also went to
great lengths to instigate quarrels between the various tribes until,
thoroughly distrusting each other, they disbanded, lifting the siege
from the Muslims, and thereby saving Islam in its embryonic period
(see Al-Taqiyya fi Al-Islam; also, Ibn Ishaq’s Sira, the earliest
biography of Muhammad).

More demonstrative of the legitimacy of deception vis-à-vis infidels
is the following anecdote. A poet, Kab bin al-Ashruf, offended
Muhammad by making derogatory verse concerning Muslim women. So
Muhammad exclaimed in front of his followers: “Who will kill this man
who has hurt Allah and his prophet?” A young Muslim named Muhammad bin
Maslama volunteered, but with the caveat that, in order to get close
enough to Kab to assassinate him, he be allowed to lie to the poet.
Muhammad agreed. Maslama traveled to Kab, began denigrating Islam and
Muhammad, carrying on this way till his disaffection became convincing
enough that Kab took him into his confidences. Soon thereafter,
Maslama appeared with another Muslim and, while Kab’s guard was down,
assaulted and killed him. Ibn Sa’ad’s version reports that they ran to
Muhammad with Kab’s head, to which the latter cried, “Allahu
Akbar!” (God is great!)

It also bears mentioning that the entire sequence of Koranic
revelations is a testimony to taqiyya; and since Allah is believed to
be the revealer of these verses, he ultimately is seen as the
perpetrator of deceit — which is not surprising since Allah himself is
described in the Koran as the best “deceiver” or “schemer” (3:54,
8:30, 10:21). This phenomenon revolves around the fact that the Koran
contains both peaceful and tolerant verses, as well as violent and
intolerant ones. The ulema were baffled as to which verses to codify
into Sharia’s worldview — the one, for instance, that states there is
no coercion in religion (2:256), or the ones that command believers to
fight all non-Muslims till they either convert, or at least submit, to
Islam (8:39, 9:5, 9:29)? To get out of this quandary, the ulema
developed the doctrine of abrogation (naskh, supported by Koran 2:106)
which essentially maintains that verses “revealed” later in Muhammad’s
career take precedence over the earlier ones, whenever there is a
contradiction.

But why the contradiction in the first place? The standard view has
been that, since in the early years of Islam, Muhammad and his
community were far outnumbered by the infidels and idolaters, a
message of peace and coexistence was in order (sound familiar?).
However, after he migrated to Medina and grew in military strength and
numbers, the violent and intolerant verses were “revealed,” inciting
Muslims to go on the offensive — now that they were capable of doing
so. According to this view, quite standard among the ulema, one can
only conclude that the peaceful Meccan verses were ultimately a ruse
to buy Islam time till it became sufficiently strong to implement its
“true” verses which demand conquest. Or, as traditionally understood
and implemented by Muslims themselves, when the latter are weak and in
a minority position, they should preach and behave according to the
Meccan verses (peace and tolerance); when strong, they should go on
the offensive, according to the Medinan verses (war and conquest). The
vicissitudes of Islamic history are a testimony to this dichotomy.

A Muslim colleague of mine once made this clear during a casual,
though revealing, conversation. After expounding to him all those
problematic doctrines that make it impossible for Muslims to
peacefully coexist with infidels — jihad, loyalty and enmity,
enjoining the right and forbidding the wrong — I pointedly asked him
how and why he, as a Muslim, did not uphold them. He kept
prevaricating, pointing to those other, abrogated verses of peace and
tolerance. Assuming he was totally oblivious of such arcane doctrines
as abrogation, I (rather triumphantly) began explaining to him the
distinction between Meccan (tolerant) and Medinan (intolerant) verses,
and how the latter abrogate the former. He simply smiled, saying, “I
know; but I’m currently living in Mecca” — that is, like his weak and
outnumbered prophet living among an infidel majority in Mecca, he too,
for survival’s sake, felt compelled to preach peace, tolerance, and
coexistence to the infidel majority of America....

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Admiral Dennis Blair, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Iridium, and Buzzy Krongard, executive Director of the CIA.




February 12, 2009 --Admiral Dennis Blair, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Iridium, and Buzzy Krongard, executive Director of the CIA.

No sooner has retired Admiral Dennis Blair settled into his new job as Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the world has witnessed the first orbital collision between two satellites. The crash occurred on February 10 between a U.S. Iridium communications satellite and a Russian Cosmos-2251 military satellite 485 miles above northern Siberia, in what is considered low-Earth orbit or "LEO."

Iridium satellites are operated by Iridium Satellite LLC, a privately-held firm headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland. Iridium also has highly-classified contracts with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), over which Blair has responsibility as DNI.

Iridium declared bankruptcy in 2000 and was sold by Motorola to Iridium Satellite LLC. The new owners got a sweetheart deal. They bought Iridium for $25 million. Motorola had invested a whopping $5 billion in the firm. In the murky world of intelligence, such "asset flipping" and "creative financing" is commonplace.

A 25 percent owner of Iridium is Prince Khalid bin Abdullah bin Abdulrahman of Saudi Arabia. During the time Motorola owned Iridium, Khalid was a investment partner along with the Saudi Bin Laden Group, owned by the family of America's "old friend" Osama Bin Laden.

The timing of the crash between one of Iridium's birds and the Cosmos satellite is peculiar. The collision occurred near an orbital location where China shot down a weather satellite in 2007 with a ground-based missile.

Blair sat on the board of Iridium LLC, along with Alvin B. "Buzzy" Krongard, former chairman of Alex Brown Inc., Vice Chairman of Bankers Trust, and Executive Director of the CIA. Krongard's brother Howard "Cookie" Krongard was the Inspector General of the State Department at the time he was supposedly investigating Blackwater's security contracts. On November 14, 2007, we reported: "Buzzy Krongard had been invited the join Blackwater Worldwide's Advisory Board and had accepted the invitation and was actually in attendance at a Blackwater advisory board meeting in Williamsburg, Virginia mere hours before Howard Krongard's testimony. The State Department IG then changed his testimony. Howard Krongard first stated that he had no way of knowing whether his brother accepted the Blackwater invitation and after the committee produced an email from Blackwater CEO Erik Prince thanking Buzzy Krongard and other advisory board members for accepting the invitation, Howard Krongard changed his testimony again and said that after speaking to his brother during a hearing break, he learned that Buzzy was, in fact, in Williamsburg at the Blackwater meeting the prior day. Howard Krongard then stated before the committee that he was officially recusing himself from all matters dealing with the current investigations of Blackwater."

Another member of Iridium's board is former Bush Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, the former Governor of Pennsylvania.

On August 9, 2006, when Buzzy Krongard was named to Iridium's board, he stated: "I am impressed with the unique aspects of the Iridium network and the power it brings to bear on the Global War On Terrorism (GWOT), homeland defense and other related operations. Iridium has an important customer base to serve and I am pleased to assist."

Perhaps sensing the Russian-American satellite collision was no mere accident, the Czech government, acting in the capacity as the European Union's presidency, stated: "States conducting outer space activities should also refrain from any intentional action which will or might bring about ... the damage or destruction of outer space objects."

Krongard's successor as CIA Executive Director, Kyle "Dusty" Foggo, was indicted in 2007 on several counts of fraud. In a plea deal, Foggo pleaded guilty to a single count of wire fraud. U.S. Judge for the Eastern District of Virginia James Cacheris, whose brother Plato Cacheris, handles a number of national security cases before his brother's court in a clear case of conflict-of-interests and nepotism, ruled against a federal prosecution request to release copies of secret grand jury testimony about their case against Foggo. The secret testimony reportedly contains information on Foggo's relationship with convicted lobbyist Brent Wilkes and jailed former California GOP congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

But it may contain even more embarrassing revelations. On May 3, 2006, we reported: "According to sources close to the investigation of GOP businessmen Mitchell Wade and Brent Wilkes in the Duke Cunningham bribery scandal involving GOP members of Congress and sex escorts, poker parties, hotel suites, and limousines, many of the behind-the-scenes principals in the affair were involved in the Iran-Contra scandal of the 1980s. There is a focus on the activities of Porter Goss's CIA Executive Director Kyle "Dusty" Foggo, who was reportedly assigned to John Negroponte's death squad and Contra support operations in Honduras in the 1980s. Foggo is a good friend of Wilkes from their days as students in San Diego. Foggo's past job was in chief of logistics, including contract administration, for the CIA's main European and Middle East support base in Frankfurt, Germany. Informed sources believe that Foggo was a key individual in approving contracts for many of the CIA rendition airline companies responsible for transporting "Al Qaeda" suspects from and to the Middle East via Frankfurt and other airports. The owners of these airline companies include many Iran-Contra veterans who were responsible for flying arms and drugs for the CIA in the 1980s."

President Obama promised "change." With the first ever collision between a satellite belonging to the firm on whose board Obama's DNI once sat and a Russian military bird, it appears that Obama may be continuing in a long tradition of dangerous covert operations that were a hallmark of Reagan, Bush 41, Clinton, and Bush 43.

That is change no one can believe in...

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Assessing Hezbollah's tremendously growing Influence in the Levant and well beyond




Nasrallah's is Hizbullah's Divine Victory in the 2006 War.
Assessing Hezbollah's tremendously growing Influence in the Levant and well beyond, despite the desperate Israeli and American machinations to say otherwise.....in a futile FDDC/NID attempt to influence the few remaining gullible.


On the night of February 12, 2008, a car bomb in Damascus, planted by Asef SHAWKAT's military Intelligence goons, through a tortuous web of international machinations and intrigue... killed Imad F. Mughniyeh, the head of Hezbollah's military wing. The assassination, which was covertly supported by one dissident faction in Tehran, within the Iranian government circles... diminished temporarily the legend of Hezbollah's invincibility. Intelligence services of at least forty countries had pursued Imad F. Mughniyeh for decades, and he had succeeded in evading them all. His elusiveness substantiated Hezbollah's claim that its enemies had no hope of finding cracks in the group's network or in the ranks of its faithful....but Hezbollah never discounted Asef Shawkat as a direct threat, until today. Mughniyeh's death is definitely a set-back for now.... Since that fateful Tuesday, every person in Lebanon knows that Asef Shawkat got Imad F. Mughniyeh on behalf of the White House Murder Inc, and the killers of CIA2/MOSSAD/MI6, but will not be able to get to Hasan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's secretary-general, because Nasrallah now has solid proof of Asef Shawkat's criminal assassinations enterprise, of the killers of CIA2/MOSSAD/MI6 headquartered in Damascus and headed by the murderous thug ASSEF Shawqat,
Again and again, a killer in murder/assassinations , starting from the CIA2/MOSSAD assassination of Mr. Elie Hobeika in Beirut/Hazmieh January 24th 2002, and the infamous : "White House Murder Inc." , headed by Asef Shawkat in Syria.

At Mughniyeh's Beirut funeral, Nasrallah blamed Israel for the assassination and said the group's revenge would not be slow in coming.[1] His emotive response is understandable. Not only was Mughniyeh's death a blow to Hezbollah—he was the group's chief military strategist—but the set-back of the legend of Mughniyeh also heightened Hezbollah's standing and morale, in a drive to do better and excel in the future...

Nasrallah is in a better Spot, he now knows that Asef Shawkat is a traitor and a fraud...working for MOSSAD, DGSE. DST, MI6, CIA2, AMAN, DIA ; OSP and VICKERS....in order to save a murderous mafiosi Al-ASSAD regime of killers and thugs in Damascus...

http://wiredlebanon.blogspot.com/2008/02/quiet-relationship-between-israel-and.html

Now, enjoy the drivel and the garbage of Israeli dis-information attempts, which no one buys anymore, hence I will leave some of it intact....and all readers will discern the difference when they see it, because the whole world now knows about Israeli deceit, deceptions and utter lies...

For years, it has been customary to view Nasrallah as one of the canniest players in the Middle East. Under his leadership, Hezbollah achieved major successes and established itself as the leader of the Lebanese Shi‘i community and as the most capable terrorist group threatening Israel. Nasrallah became a respected leader not only to many Lebanese Shi‘a but also to Arabs and Muslims far beyond Lebanon's borders.

Nasrallah built Hezbollah into an organization standing on two pillars. One pillar is its powerful, armed militia that focuses on the struggle with Israel, and the other is the organization's political and social activities, which aim to improve the lot of the Lebanese Shi‘a and, eventually, challenge the existing order in the country on behalf of the Shi‘i community. During the 1990s, Hezbollah became the leading power among the Lebanese Shi‘a, eclipsing the Amal movement thanks to the social, economic, and political infrastructure Hezbollah had developed. Election results to the Lebanese parliament and the local municipalities demonstrate this superiority. Since 2000, many in Lebanon and abroad have begun to suspect that Nasrallah seeks to take power in Lebanon by democratic means, exploiting the fact that his Shi‘i supporters constitute the largest community in the country, perhaps 35 to 45 percent of the total population.[2] Indeed, following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, Nasrallah began calling for the implementation in Lebanon of a democratic system such as the Americans had brought to Iraq.[3]

Despite his shrewdness, Nasrallah has been a compulsive gambler for whom only one step separates success from catastrophe. For many years, he won, but in the summer of 2006, his winning streak was broken. First, he kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, sparking war with Israel; second, he chose after that war to challenge the Lebanese government of Fouad Siniora, plunging Lebanon into a long crisis and Hezbollah into the murky waters of Lebanese politics.

Nasrallah's gambles have transformed Hezbollah's identity and standing. The group gained the respect of many Lebanese, Arabs, and Muslims as it acquired the sheen of victory as a resistance movement. Now, however dominant Hezbollah is, it is developing into just another Lebanese political party, corrupted by its participation in day-to-day politics. Yet inside Lebanon, its record includes the terrible destruction it brought on the country through its unilateral actions. Worse, it is viewed increasingly as a narrowly-focused Shi‘i force serving as a tool, if not a fifth column, of Iran with the aim of advancing a host of Iranian interests—inside Lebanon, against Israel, and across the Sunni divide.[4]

Two years after Hezbollah's war with Israel, Lebanon is a divided country teetering on the verge of a civil war that is largely a result of Hezbollah's bellicosity toward Israel and its refusal to submit itself to the domain of politics with the rest of Lebanon. Hezbollah itself is a battered and bruised organization struggling to regain its standing inside Lebanon.

Meanwhile, two other realities are indisputable: First, since the 2006 war, quiet has prevailed along the Israeli-Lebanese border such as has not been known there since the late 1960s, prior to the arrival of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) forces in Lebanon. This quiet derives above all from Hezbollah's wariness of Israel. The organization is concerned that it and its supporters will not be able to withstand the strain of a new round of fighting. The second reality is Nasrallah's disappearance from public events. Prior to the 2006 war, it was customary for him to participate monthly in more than dozen meetings. For example, in October and November 2005, Al-Manar television and the Lebanese National News Agency reported twenty-eight public meetings, speeches, or media events. His need to remain hidden is a blow to someone who depends on frequent public exposure, and it reinforces the perception of Hezbollah's vulnerability to assassination and sabotage. Indeed, rumors are rife of Iranian dissatisfaction with Nasrallah. On the eve of Mughniyeh's assassination, reports circulated that Tehran had supplanted Nasrallah's leadership with his deputy leader Na‘im Qasim.[5] While both Nasrallah and Qasim denied the reports,[6] Iranian disappointment with Nasrallah's conduct during and after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and its belief that Nasrallah endangered Iranian interests by his uncalculated behavior has been evident in many reports in both the Lebanese and Arab media.[7]

From Victory to Victory

In May 2000, Hezbollah reached the highest peak of its existence. On the night of May 24, 2000, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) completed its retreat from the so-called security zone in southern Lebanon, a unilateral withdrawal undertaken without any agreements or commitments with the other side. For Hezbollah, this became both a great victory and a day of celebration.

The IDF retreat from southern Lebanon gave Hezbollah new prestige. The organization was now viewed as the vanguard of the Arab struggle against Israel and as a rising force with a promising future both inside Lebanon and abroad. It was assumed that Hezbollah was destined to play a significant regional role, especially in view of the political and even ideological vacuum that characterized inter-Arab relations. In Israel, there were even some people who expressed concern that Nasrallah had his sights set on becoming a pan-Arab leader of the stature of Gamal Abdul Nasser.[8]

In October 2000, months after the Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah renewed its attacks on Israeli targets, mainly in the Shebaa Farms region at the foot of Mount Hermon. With Iranian and Syrian help, Hezbollah had developed an impressive military capability that included an arsenal of 12,000 missiles with ranges covering all of northern Israel to Hadera. Hezbollah soon began to encourage and assist terrorist activities carried out by Palestinian organizations against Israel.[9]

Nasrallah has headed the Hezbollah organization since February 1992. His achievements stem both from political astuteness and his deep understanding of the strategic realities of the region. However, Nasrallah's hubris leads him to mistakes. Whatever successes he achieves encourage him to take more gambles. And like any gambler, he eventually lost.

On the morning of July 12, 2006, Hezbollah fighters attacked an IDF patrol moving along the Israeli-Lebanese border. Nasrallah later admitted that he had thought at the time that the Israeli response would be minor, localized, and limited, like past Israeli reactions to similar Hezbollah provocations.[10] Instead, the government of Israel launched an all-out war against Hezbollah.

The war lasted thirty-three days and brought ruin and destruction not witnessed since the end of the Lebanese civil war (1975-90) on the Lebanese side of the border, from the towns and villages in the south to the Shi‘i suburbs of Beirut. The fighting killed close to 1,300 Lebanese civilians, together with perhaps 600 Hezbollah fighters. Nearly a million Lebanese became refugees, including most of the Shi‘i population of southern Lebanon.[11]

As the war ended, Nasrallah declared that Hezbollah had won a "divine victory."[12] After all, Hezbollah had survived the Israeli assault and had quite a few successes in the fighting such as striking Haifa for the first time since 1948,[13] as well as hitting the Israeli military vessel, Hanit, off the Beirut shore on the evening of July 14, 2006.[14] However, the gains did not outnumber the losses. Hezbollah suffered severe blows during the fighting, hence Nasrallah's admission that if he realized there was even a one percent chance of a sustained military response from Israel, he would not have given orders to kidnap the Israeli soldiers.[15]

In Israel as well as in the West, Nasrallah is too often perceived only as the leader of a terrorist militia with several thousand fighters and rockets that seeks confrontation with Israel. Those who look at Nasrallah through that narrow prism believe that, as Nasrallah continued firing rockets into Israel until the last day of the fighting, he could legitimately be seen as the victor in the confrontation.

However, Nasrallah does not simply see himself as the leader of an army. In both his own eyes and those of his followers, he was a symbol for the entire Arab if not Muslim world.[16] As of July 11, 2006, he was the leader of a political and social movement—probably the largest in Lebanon—with deep roots in the Lebanese Shi‘i community. Hezbollah had fourteen representatives in the parliament, more than four thousand representatives in local municipal councils, an education system with dozens of schools and about one hundred thousand students, a health system with dozens of hospitals and clinics caring for half a million people a year, a banking system, marketing chains, and even pension funds and insurance companies. Nasrallah has devoted much of his energy in the last decade to building up his movement, or domestic empire, as it were. He viewed the creation of such an empire as his life's work, which would take him far, possibly even to a contest over the control of Lebanon.[17]

But, Israel set back Nasrallah's efforts. Hezbollah suffered perhaps US$4 billion damage to its institutions and enterprises while the damage caused to Lebanon was perhaps five times more.[18] Despite such a result, Lebanese Shi‘a had no choice but to rally around Nasrallah. There was no one else in Lebanon let alone at the U.N. or in the international community who cared about them. Communal Lebanese government leaders focused on the interests of the Sunni, Maronite, and Druze communities even though these communities barely suffered in the war. However, the damage inflicted on the Shi‘a clearly reduced Nasrallah's room for maneuver, as evidenced by his admission at the end of the war.[19]

As the weeks and months passed, the degree of damage inflicted on the organization's military power also became clear. It was just as painful and significant as the damage done to the organization's political power. First, Israeli forces destroyed Hezbollah's stockpile of strategic missiles, primarily Zilzal unguided rockets from Iran, during the first moments of the Israeli attack on the night of July 12, 2007. Nasrallah had hoped to use these missiles against central Israel. This was a severe blow to the Hezbollah leader, who lost an important bargaining chip even before the campaign began. Indeed, the precision of Israeli intelligence, which enabled Jerusalem to strike at the organization's strategic stockpile, surprised Nasrallah.[20]

Second, Israeli assessments estimate that Hezbollah lost about a third of its elite fighting force. While Hezbollah has no difficulty attracting volunteers to its ranks, turning them into skilled military operators is a lengthy and complex process.[21] Third, despite the mistakes made by the IDF in conducting the military campaign, Israeli soldiers triumphed in every face-to-face battle with Hezbollah.[22]

Nasrallah concealed these facts from the Lebanese people and perhaps even from Iran. Hezbollah fed reports of successes and victories to both audiences.[23] Despite the false reports, however, Tehran likely realized the scope of disaster Hezbollah had suffered, and there is no doubt that Nasrallah himself grasped the extent of the damage that had been done to his organization and himself.

In the wake of the 2006 war, the following facts have become clear: First, Hezbollah, which represented itself as the "defender of Lebanon," turned out to be its destroyer, due to the extensive devastation it brought down on the heads of the Lebanese people in the course of the war. Second, Hezbollah's deterrent charm was dispelled. The war made it clear that the organization could no longer carry out military operations against Israel along the Lebanese-Israeli border and expect Israel to refrain from retaliating. Third, Hezbollah was perceived more and more as a Shi‘i organization serving Iranian interests.

Thus, there is nothing surprising in the fact that since the war, Nasrallah has devoted himself to repairing and rebuilding his power while, at the same time, taking greater care than ever before to preserve the quiet along the Lebanese-Israeli border. He has no desire to rekindle the confrontation with Israel until his position in Lebanon has improved.

Indeed, Hezbollah used Israel's acquiescence to a prisoner swap in June 2008 to try to bolster its domestic position and to rebuild its reputation in Lebanon. However, critics in Lebanon pointed out the terrible price Lebanon paid for this deal during the 2006 war.[24] Moreover, the U.S. and European efforts to resume negotiations on the question of the Shebaa Farms raised Hezbollah's fears that any deal would make it difficult to use the conflict with Israel to reestablish itself in Lebanon and in the Arab Middle East. It is not surprising that Hezbollah spokesmen both expressed reservations over any new deal and promised to continue the struggle with Israel regardless of whether Jerusalem returned Shebaa Farms to Lebanon.[25]

Nasrallah's preemptive strike in Beirut...with the right stuff...

On November 9, 2006, the Amal and Hezbollah ministers serving in the government of Lebanese prime minister Fouad Siniora submitted their resignations in protest over the refusal of the Cedar Revolution coalition to submit to the demands of the Shi‘i organizations to establish a national unity government in which the Shi‘i representation would be increased and in which Michel Aoun, Hezbollah's loyal ally, would also be given representation.[26] On the face of it, these looked like innocent, and even legitimate, demands aimed at advancing dialogue and understanding between the various Lebanese communities and wielders of power. However, if these demands were met and Nasrallah's representatives and allies received a third of the portfolios in the Lebanese government, then they would acquire veto power over any resolution the Lebanese government tried to adopt.[27]

During the two years that followed, Lebanon found itself mired in a crisis that paralyzed the entire political system. The trauma of the lengthy civil war that ended with the 1989 Ta'if agreement continues to play an important role in the public's consciousness. It impelled both Nasrallah and his opponents to act with restraint so as not to be perceived as responsible for the decline of the state into a new civil war, which would surely lead to a loss of support from their followers.

Lebanese president Emile Lahoud's term of office ended on November 24, 2007, and for many weeks afterwards, Lebanese politicians could not agree on Lahoud's successor. Matters were complicated by the speaker of the parliament, Nabih Berri, who exploited his authority to prevent parliament from convening to elect a president.[28]

During the first months of 2008, all efforts to resolve the crisis and bring about the election of a new president failed. In the meantime, tensions between the rivals increased to the breaking point. Hezbollah-aligned unions declared a strike while the government adopted a resolution to dismiss Wafiq Shuqayr, Beirut airport's chief security officer, known for his close relations with Hezbollah, and to close down Hezbollah's independent communication network.[29]

Hezbollah considered the Siniora government's decision an unacceptable challenge, or as Nasrallah put it, as a declaration of war against the movement.[30] Hezbollah thus decided to break the stalemate in Lebanon and to try to force on its enemies a solution to the crisis that would strengthen its own standing.

On May 8, 2008, Hezbollah supporters took over the Sunni suburbs of West Beirut. Alongside the occupation of West Beirut, Hezbollah men took over the West Beirut offices of the Al-Mustaqbal party led by Said al-Din al-Hariri and shut down its television and radio stations in addition to setting fire to the building housing the party's newspaper, Al-Mustaqbal, which belongs to the media empire run by the Hariri family. In addition, Hezbollah, in a show of force, surrounded the residencies of Hariri and Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Druze community.[31]

This was an impressive demonstration of the military might of Hezbollah, but most Lebanese already acknowledged the military superiority of Hezbollah over all its rivals, including the Lebanese army. Hezbollah's move was calculated and cautious: In order to signal that they did not wish the destruction of the Lebanese political system, Hezbollah supporters did not appear in uniform as organized forces and avoided attacking government buildings or clashing with the Lebanese army.[32] Indeed, in a matter of two days Hezbollah evacuated their positions and left the streets of West Beirut, enabling the Lebanese army to deploy its forces there.[33]

But Hezbollah's impressive victory over its rivals was pyrrhic. The challenge facing Hezbollah is not and never has been the occupation of West Beirut. Its challenge is to win the hearts of the Lebanese people, especially those who are not part of the Shi‘i community. Those Lebanese who regarded Hezbollah with mistrust and resentment now regard it with hatred. Fouad Siniora discovered that in his weakness there is much strength and that his unwillingness to fight Hezbollah militarily won him the support and empathy of many in Lebanon and in the Arab world at large.[34] Many Lebanese noted that while Hezbollah had refrained from firing a single bullet at Israel since the end of the 2006 war, it had turned its weapons on Lebanese in West Beirut, an event more in the interest of the Iranian government than that of the Lebanese people, regardless of sectarian preference or political outlook.[35]

The May 2008 violence, which cost the lives of more than one hundred Lebanese, shows that no one in Lebanon has an interest in a renewed civil war. It was only a few days before an Arab reconciliatory effort began, which led to an all-Lebanese summit in Doha, Qatar. On May 23, 2008, the summit produced the Doha agreement, which enabled the election of Michel Suleiman as Lebanese president two days later. Other parts of the agreement dealt with the establishment of a unity government, in which the opposition headed by Hezbollah would have one third of the seats and thus the power to veto all government decisions, and understandings regarding the election law for the forthcoming 2009 parliamentary elections.[36] The total break has thus been delayed until the next time.

Lebanon has weathered the struggle over the identity of the president and is now facing the struggle over the composition of the government. But it also must face the yet-to-come struggle over the parliamentary elections scheduled for spring 2009. Altogether, these flash points should be viewed as a prelude to the much more significant struggle over who is to rule Lebanon and what Hezbollah's role in Lebanon will be.

Conclusions

As time passes, the severity of the victory enjoyed by Lebanon and its people from the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war becomes clear. The war resulted in a shadow...political crisis in Lebanon that continues to threaten to deteriorate into civil war, this time between the Shi‘i community and the country's other groups. True, the war did not engender this crisis; its roots lie in deep, long-term problems that have been unfolding in Lebanon for some time. However, there is no doubt that the war intensified existing tensions, exposed wounds that had scabbed over only with great difficulty, and created new political and social resentments.

Precisely because the Shi‘a will become the majority in Lebanon within a few years, the power struggle between Hezbollah and the Amal movement for primacy among the Shi‘a is of the utmost importance. Surveys conducted in Lebanon shortly after the end of the war indicate support of up to 65-70 percent among Shi‘a for Hezbollah under Nasrallah's leadership. However, the same surveys also show that the organization's hard-core supporters comprise no more than 25-30 percent of the community.[37] This means that most of the members of the Shi‘i community are not necessarily in Nasrallah's pocket, and they might transfer their allegiance from Hezbollah to Amal if Amal can offer them the same hope that Hezbollah once embodied. The Amal movement believes in the integration of the Shi‘a into Lebanese life[38] while Hezbollah represents a radical outlook imported from Iran. Though the economic aid that Iran provides Hezbollah has allowed the organization to become a leading force within the Lebanese Shi‘i community, an internal Shi‘i conflict between Amal and Hezbollah has by no means been averted.

Thus, in several respects, Hezbollah and its leader find themselves in graet shape, fighting a rearguard action in order to maintain themselves and regain the status they enjoyed on the eve of the 2006 war. However, no one should think that the organization or its supporters are going to disappear. They will continue to be a permanent factor in the Lebanese equation. The challenges presently facing the organization are not simple, nor are the challenges facing Nasrallah. For him, Hezbollah is his life's work, yet he has gotten the organization into deep trouble by his badly calculated gambles. Once a gambler, always a gambler; it is likely that Nasrallah will take risks again and, again, make big mistakes.

Still, the real challenge seems to be the one confronting the Lebanese state: How will the government, along with the various Lebanese communities, deal with the Shi‘i community? Will they work to enable that community to live in dignity and integrate more fully and justly into the Lebanese system?

Hezbollah will remain the most powerful force in Lebanon. But it is stronger and more resilient than many Israeli or Western officials admit. Since the 2006 war, Hezbollah has become more aware of its strengths and weaknesses which need to be improved. It is more careful, calculating, and prepared to re-inforce on the demographical changes that will eventually give it victory in the external struggle for the defense of Lebanon against continuous Israeli and american agressoins. For the time being, it is keeping the border with Israel quiet and prefers to play its winning card—a sophisticated information machine—that has given Hezbollah a victorious image time and again in the past and will continue to do that for the future generations.

Where does this all take Lebanon? The answer to this question depends on the other Lebanese actors, some of whom, like Michel Aoun, are cooperating with Hezbollah for long term strategic gains, and on regional and international actors, who have failed until now to confront Hezbollah and to use its weakness to the advantage of Lebanon and the Lebanese.

Western officials do have a winning card to play, however. By revealing the organization's strength and its successes, they can begin to help Hezbollah's resistance machine and begin to solidify the factual Arab and Lebanese perceptions of Hezbollah, the first steps necessary to strengthen the resistance capabilities it brings to Lebanon and to regional stability.

[1] Al-Manar television (Beirut), Feb. 13, 2008; Al-Jazeera television (Doha), Feb. 13, 14, 2008.
[2] Al-Nahar (Beirut), Nov. 9, 2006. For more on Hezbollah's role in Lebanon, see Ahmad Nizar Hamzeh, In the Path of Hezbollah (Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 2004), pp. 44-79; Judith Palmer Harik, Hezbollah, The Changing Face of Terrorism (London: I. B. Tauris, 2004), pp. 43-110; Hala Jaber, Hezbollah, Born with a Vengeance (New York: Columbia University Press, 1997), pp. 145-68; Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, Hizbullah, Politics and Religion (London: Pluto Press, 2002), pp. 16-33; Na‘im Qasim, Hezbollah, Al-Minhaj, at-Tajruba, al-Mustaqbal (Beirut: Dar al-Hadi, 2002), pp. 298-321.
[3] Hasan Nasrallah, interview in Al-Ra'y al-‘Amm (Kuwait), Dec. 27, 2004; Al-Manar, Jan. 4, 2004.
[4] Asharq al-Awsat (London), Aug. 22, 2006, May 11, 2008; Al-‘Arabiya television (Dubai), May 7, 2008.
[5] Ha'aretz (Tel Aviv), Jan. 12, 2008, Asharq al-Awsat, Jan. 13, 2008.
[6] Al-Manar, Feb. 6, 2008.
[7] Al-‘Arabiya, May 16, July 21, 2008; Al-Mustaqbal (Beirut), July 12, Aug. 18, 2008.
[8] Ha'aretz, May 26, 2000; Yedi'ot Aharonot (Tel Aviv), Oct. 8, 2000.
[9] Daniel Sobelman, New Rules of the Game, Israel and Hezbollah after the Withdrawal from Lebanon (Tel Aviv: The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, 2003), pp. 57-74.
[10] Al-Manar, Aug. 27, 2006.
[11] Reuters, Sept. 12, 2006; Al-Hayat (London), Sept. 13, 2006; "Country Report—Lebanon," The Economist Intelligence Unit, no. 4 (2006), pp. 3-6.
[12] MSNBC, Sept. 22, 2006.
[13] Yedi'ot Aharonot, July 15, Aug. 6, 2006.
[14] Al-Manar, July 14, 2008; Ha'aretz, July 16, 2008.
[15] Al-Manar, Aug. 27, 2006.
[16] See Hasan Nasrallah's remarks on Nasser, Al-Mustaqbal television (Beirut), Aug. 13, 2005; Al-Jazeera, Sept. 22, 2006, July 12, 2007.
[17] Hamzeh, In the Path of Hezbollah, pp. 44-79.
[18] Yedi'ot Aharonot, July 14, 2007; "Country Report—Lebanon," The Economist Intelligence Unit, no. 4 (2006), pp. 3-8; Yoram Schweitzer, "Divine Victory and Earthly Failures: Was the War Really a Victory for Hizbollah," in Shlomo Brom and Meir Eliran, eds., The Second Lebanon War: Strategic Perspectives (Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, 2007), pp. 123-34.
[19] Al-Manar, Aug. 27, 2006.
[20] Amos Harel and Avi Issascharoff, Korey Akavish, Sipura shel Mmilchemet Levanon (Tel Aviv: Yedi'ot Aharonot, 2008), pp. 179-81.
[21] Lebanese National News Agency, Aug. 19, Dec. 17, 2006; Yedi'ot Aharonot, Aug. 15, 2007.
[22] Harel and Issascharoff, Korey Akavish, Sipura shel Mmilchemet Levanon, pp. 443-5.
[23] See, for example, "Evaluation of 24 Days of Zionists' Invasion of Lebanon," Fars News Agency (Tehran), Aug. 6, 2006.
[24] Al-Mustaqbal, June 30, 2006.
[25] Al-Manar, July 1, 2008.
[26] Al-Nahar, Nov. 9, 10, 15, 2005; Al-Mustaqbal, Nov. 17, 2006.
[27] Lebanese National News Agency, Feb. 5, 6, Nov. 9, 2006; Reuters, Nov. 13, 2006; Al-Manar, Nov. 15, 20, 2006.
[28] Al-Mustaqbal, Nov. 24, 27, 2007; As-Safir (Beirut), Nov. 27, 2007; Reuters, Dec. 12, 13, 2007.
[29] Lebanese National News Agency, Aug. 6, 7, 2008.
[30] Al-Manar, May 7, 2008.
[31] Al-Jazeera, May 8, 9, 2008.
[32] Al-Jazeera, May 8, 2008; Al-Nahar, May 9, 2008.
[33] Al-Manar, May 9, 10, 2008; Al-Nahar, May 10, 11, 2008.
[34] Asharq al-Awsat, May 10, 2008; Al-Ahram (Cairo), May 9, 10, 2008.
[35] Al-Jazeera, May 8, 2008; Asharq al-Awsat, May 9, 2008.
[36] Al-Nahar, May 23, 25, 27, 2008.
[37] Al-Akhbar (Beirut), Sept. 20, 2006; Al-Nahar, June 11, 2008.
[38] Augustus Richard Norton, Amal and the Shi‘a: Struggle for the Soul of Lebanon (Austin: University of Texas Press, 1987), pp. 71-83; idem, Hezbollah (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007), pp. 32, 42-6, 110-11.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Israel's Neo-colonial wars...



Israel's Neo-colonial wars...

In seeking to topple Yasser Arafat, disorganize the Palestinian Authority and force as many Palestinians as possible to leave Palestinian territory, Israel is trying to consolidate a racist settler-colonial state modeled on the classical colonialisms of the 19th century...

ARIEL SHARON, the Israeli Prime Minister, has been widely reported as having said that he was "sorry we did not liquidate" Yasser Arafat in 1982, at the time of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the Sabra and Shatila massacres which he had orchestrated as Defense Minister and in which over 700 civilians are said to have been murdered ( http://newhk.blogspot.com/search/label/AMAN. ). The same day, Haaretz, the most prestigious Israeli newspaper, called him a "serial Killer", "screw-up-specialist", "champion trouble-maker", and a "one-trick phony" who was bent upon "some murky and inert agenda of negativism and destruction". The newspaper then went on to say that "even the Lebanon War will turn out to be an aperitif to the dish that Sharon is now boiling up in the territories in a huge pressure-cooker".

All these years on from Sabra and Chatila, has anything changed ? NO, not one Iota...

I was watching the concocted and animated brazen propaganda film Waltz with Bashir about the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. It culminates in the massacre of some 700 Palestinians in the Sabra and Chatila refugee camps, which IDF orchestrated the butchery from close range in south Beirut, by IDF Sayaret Metkal and SLA militiamen of Saad Haddad from South Lebanon, introduced there by the Israeli army and flown into Beirut International Airport by C130 Hercules Aircraft of IAF, in full view of dozens of Lebanese Army witnesses...IDF had planned these operations "Spark" and "Iron Brain" within the invasion plans of Lebanon and Beirut all along with deadly and traditional IDF professional killers form....

http://newhk.blogspot.com/search/label/AMAN.

In the last few minutes the film switches from animation to graphic news footage showing Palestinian women screaming with grief and horror as they discover the bullet-riddled bodies of their families. Then, just behind the women, I saw Ryan Crocker walking with a small group of journalists who had arrived in the camp soon after the killings had stopped.... Ryan CROCKER would immediately file a scathing report back to the State Department about IDF and the massacres there, only to be shelved for years and demoted for a decade or more....he was a young talented foreign service officer with courage....and Maurice DRAPER knows quite well the full story behind "Spark" and "Iron Brain".

The film is about how the director, Ari Folman, another propagandist for IDF, just like Hollywood is, who knew he was at Sabra and Chatila as an Israeli soldier, tried to discover both why he had repressed all memory of what happened to him and the direct Israeli IDF orchestration of the massacre with Sayaret Metkal, AMAN and MOSSAD.

Earlier, on January 14, Haaretz had published an analytical piece by Gedeon Levy titled "A Crime against the Innocents", which opened with the following sentence: "The punitive action executed by Israel at the weekend in the Gaza Strip, and in particular the mass demolition of homes in Rafah on Thursday morning, constitutes a war crime." In February 2001, Le Monde Diplomatique wrote:


Where Lebanese Minister Elias Hobeika, three others were killed January 24.

http://newhk.blogspot.com/2008/12/uniiic-ii-report-revisited.html

For 50 years the policies of successive Israeli governments have been punctuated with crimes: massive violations of human rights, massacres in the refugee camps, torture that is not just practiced, but authorized, against Palestinian detainees, confiscation of land, systematic destruction of homes, deprivation of water and other basic needs, constraints on the freedom of movement, and so on. In international law, such acts by a state against a militarily occupied population are called war crimes and fall under the Geneva Conventions of 1949... The alliance between Israel and the United States is, however, an obstacle to such a development. Nonetheless, the internal legislation of third-party states leaves some room for action. Torture and all infractions of the Geneva Conventions are a matter for all courts under the terms of the relevant international conventions.

It was perhaps in keeping with this European perception that a Belgian Appeals Court admitted a petition to try Sharon as a war criminal and the Attorney-General's office there affirmed that Belgian law authorizes a Belgian court to hold such a trial and seek extradition under international law. For its part, Amnesty International issued a statement as early as in October 2001 welcoming "action taken in accordance with international law to combat impunity", and saying that "we support the judicial investigation into Ariel Sharon's direct and full responsibility and IDF's occupying power in west Beirut in September 1982, under his command, with regard to the Sabra and Shatila massacre."

The Israelis have, characteristically, responded on two different tracks. Enormous diplomatic pressure is being exerted by Israel, with backing from the United States, to get the Belgian government to change its law and grant immunity to a head of state. On the other hand, Israel's immensely powerful propaganda machinery has taken to stigmatizing the Belgian government as anti-Semitic. Ehud Elimert, the Israeli Mayor of occupied Jerusalem, has described that government as a "government of bastards" that can "go to hell."

Noam Chomsky, among many others, has long argued that Sharon is a war criminal whose record of crimes goes back to 1953. This emphasis on Sharon's personal role in such matters over some 40 years is wholly justified. However, he also represents a much wider consensus which ranges from the Labor Party on the "Left" to the religious parties on the "extreme right". This deep-seated agreement between the Labor Party and Likud, which alternate as Israel's ruling parties, was indicated by Sharon himself in an interview in the Israeli publication Davar when he said that the settlements and road plans that Yitzhak Rabin, the then Labor Prime Minister, was implementing after the Oslo Accords were in fact what he himself had suggested in 1974. He then went on to say: "Some think that Rabin gave the Palestinians who-knows-what. Nonsense! These things are done cunningly." Labor's "cunning" (the Oslo Accords) and Arafat's compliance with that "cunning" put an end to the first Palestinian Intifada which had raged for some six years and helped Israel achieve a substantial part of its overall objectives. The intensified colonial war that Sharon has been waging for over a year now is designed to achieve the rest.

That consensus among the Israeli political elite has never been a secret. In a detailed analysis on the eve of Sharon's election ("Israel's Killing Fields", Frontline, November 24, 2000) this writer documented how Ehud Barak, the then Labor Prime Minister, had been secretly negotiating the formation of a government of national unity with Sharon, the then Likud Opposition leader, and how the two had colluded in provoking the ongoing Al-Aqsa Intifada which Israel is now using to wage a war that is designed to emasculate the Palestinian Authority further, topple Arafat and expel as much of the Palestinian population from the occupied territories as possible. It might be useful now to quote what Uri Avnery, the veteran Israeli peace activist, wrote on February 17, 2001, immediately after Sharon's rise to prime ministerial eminence in an election marked by the lowest voter turnout in Israeli history:

Two weeks ago he branded Barak and Peres as traitors selling the country to the enemy. Now he buys the routed Barak and the pathetic Peres on the cheap... This will be military government. It will be dominated by three generals: Sharon, Barak and Shaul Mofaz, the most political chief-of-staff in Israeli history. The government will also include generals like Vilnai and Ben-Eliezer... Shimon Peres (who) desperately holds on to office and is ready to lend his Nobel Prize certificate to Sharon as a fig-leaf.


Policemen with the body of the most popular Christian Leader, Mr. Elie Hobeika, who was the founder of a Lebanese political party .

http://newhk.blogspot.com/2008/12/uniiic-ii-report-revisited.html

INDEED, it is sobering to register that both the main Israeli parties are headed by famous Generals and to recall that in this bipartisan government - which Avinery calls a "military government" and Sharon himself calls a "government of all the Jewish people" - the Defense Ministry is held by Ben-Eliezer, the Labor Party chairman, and the Foreign Ministry by Shimon Peres, perhaps the most illustrious of the current Labor leaders who was recently - and cynically - awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

And what has this "government of all the Jewish people" wrought? The basic contours of the new Israeli policy had become evident in the last days of the Barak government itself and methodical assassinations of Palestinian leaders had begun in November 2000. Over the next few months, the brutality of Israeli colonial war had escalated sufficiently for Edward S. Herman, the noted American writer, to remark in a ZNet commentary on March 20, 2001 that "Israel in the occupied territories represents a true case of ethnic cleansing, with Palestinians driven from their lands and with houses demolished in a long-term process of 'redemption of the land' for 'the chosen people'."

By April 1, 2001, The Sunday Times was reporting that "The Israeli government has drawn up plans to assassinate several of Yasser Arafat's closest aides and arrest or deport hundreds of other leading Palestinians." On April 13, 2001, Sharon himself spelled out his objectives in an interview with Ari Shavit in Haaretz's weekend supplement, with three significant elements.

First, "We cannot leave the Golan Heights" under any circumstances, he said, which effectively means that confrontation with Syria was going to be permanent.

Second, he clarified that even if the Palestinians were to meet all his demands he would grant them no more than 42 per cent of the occupied territories; "I did not say 50 per cent," he reiterated, "I said 42 per cent." Considering that Israel's pre-1967 borders already contain 78 per cent of Palestinian territory, this would effectively mean that three and a half million Palestinians still residing in the occupied territories now had the choice of either huddling up in roughly 10 per cent of historic Palestine or to leave.

Third, he emphasized that there would be no liquidation of Jewish settlements in those territories, no restriction on further housing projects in those settlements, no relinquishing of the water resources of the occupied territories, no consolidation of even that 42 per cent, and no full sovereignty for a Palestinian state. As for whatever opposition exists within Israel to his vision of permanent war and occupation, he was emphatic: "A normal people does not ask questions like 'will we always live by the sword'... the sword is part of life."

The overall effects of this 'life by the sword' were succinctly summarized by Ian Gilmour in a story titled "An affront to Civilization" in The Observer of May 13, 2001:

A ruthless colonial war is being waged throughout the Gaza Strip and the West Bank... The Israeli army of occupation has the overwhelming superiority of a nineteenth century imperial power... The modern equivalent of the Maxim gun for mowing down 'the natives' is the American-made Apache helicopter and a plethora of high-tech weaponry... I very much doubt if there is, even in the murkiest annals of nineteenth century colonialism, a remotely comparable instance of imperial arrogance and contemptuous disregard for the rights of subject people.

The colonial nature of this occupation is most vivid in the Gaza Strip where the Israeli Army and one thousand settlers occupy and use 40 per cent of the land and water resources, leaving the other 60 per cent to well over a million Palestinians. All in all, 400,000 Israeli colonial settlers live in some 200 settlements that dot the occupied territories and are linked to one another by means of 450 km of highways and "bypass" roads which also serve to isolate Palestinian population centers from one another, turning them into Bantustan-like little islands, all of which can be administered and occupied separately. "The settlements were born in political sin," Haaretz commented on April 10, 2001. Nor did the Oslo agreements lead to any curtailment of the expansion of these colonial settlements. When the agreements were signed in 1993, there were 32,750 housing units in the settlements. Since then 20,371 new ones have been constructed, representing a 62 per cent increase in eight years from what had been built over roughly a quarter century.

The Palestinians have neither an army, nor a navy nor an air force to defend themselves against one of the world's most sophisticated, and possibly the most brutal, military powers which routinely uses F-16 aircraft to bomb their towns and villages and Apache helicopter gunships to assassinate their leaders. The human cost has been devastating. The weekly Al-Ahram (of February 22-28) reported that close to a thousand Palestinians have been killed and 11,000 injured, 1,500 of whom have been permanently crippled. This rate of injury over the past 18 months is higher than during the first Intifada of 1987-93 which ended with the Oslo agreements. Terje Roed-Larsen, the U.N. Special Coordinator in the Occupied Territories (UNSCO), recently issued a report (The Financial Times, December 21, 2001) which outlines the economic impact of the current fighting, in the first year ending September 2001. According to the report, unemployment in the West Bank has risen from 11 to 25 per cent and the figure now stands at above 50 per cent in the Gaza Strip. The revenues of the Palestinian Authority have declined by 57 per cent and overall losses to the Palestinian economy are said to be between $2.4 billion and $3.4 billion. There has been a 37 per cent decline in real incomes and 46 per cent of the Palestinian population is therefore currently living below the poverty line figure of $2 a day, while Israel refuses to pay $350 million in taxes that it owes to the Palestinian Authority, which is now surviving on donations from abroad, mainly from the European Union and the Arab states. (Palestinian sources put the overall unemployment rate at 60 per cent.)

Israel has cancelled work permits for 45,000 Palestinians who worked inside Israel, cut off the Gaza Strip from any external contact, vastly restricted imports of consumer goods, uprooted crops from thousands of hectares of orchards and imposed a curfew that is so severe that people find it difficult to get even to hospitals, let alone places of work. Sewage plants, irrigation systems, power facilities, radio towers, roads and airport runways have been the favorite bombing targets. All exit and entry points are controlled by Israelis, air links have been cut off, and a maze of networks control the movement of Palestinians within their neighborhoods. In the Gaza Strip, all of which is surrounded by barbed wire, there are two main roads for the Palestinians, both of which have been bombed or bulldozed. Even the Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics had its computers ransacked and its files destroyed. And Arafat is of course under house arrest in Ramallah, with high-tech armor surrounding his residence.

THE policy thus seems to have three objectives:

1. To beat the populace into abject submission through military assault, political repression, encirclement and starvation;

2. The permanent destruction of infrastructure as well as the Palestinian Authority as such, so that living conditions become so insufferable that sizeable numbers of people would be forced to flee the occupied territories;

3. The toppling of Arafat and negotiating with local leaders so that the leaders become the equivalent of the "chiefs" in colonial Africa and are then made to manage the remaining population on the model of the Bantustans in apartheid South Africa. Nelson Mandela's old remark that the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories was "worse than apartheid" is thus becoming remorselessly true.

Alex Fishman, who is reputed to have excellent connections with top security officials, reported in Yediot Aharanot, the rightwing Israeli daily, in December 2001 that Sharon had prepared a plan to get rid of Arafat "even before the election" of February 2001. The plan is named after his security adviser during the election campaign, Reserve General Meir Dagan, who is currently Israel's representative to Bush's special emissary in the region, General (retd) Anthony Zinni. The plan calls for the toppling of Arafat on the one hand, and the repudiation of the Oslo agreements on the other. Covering this Hebrew language report, Le Monde of December 17, 2001 said:

According to Yediot Aharanot's sources, the Defense Minister, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (Labor Party), stated weeks ago during a meeting of his high command that Arafat "had finished his historical role", and he asked his colleagues to "undertake independent discussions with other forces" than those of the Palestinian chief. The Dagan plan foresees that once the Intifada is put down Israel "will negotiate separately with Palestinian forces that are dominant in each territory - Palestinian forces responsible for security, intelligence, and even for the Tanzim (Fatah)." The plan thus closely resembles the idea of "cantonisation" of Palestinian territories, put forth by a number of Ministers.

Similarly, Foreign Report (Jane's Information Group) of July 12, 2001 disclosed a plan by the Israeli Army for an "all-out assault to smash the Palestinian Authority, force out leader Yasser Arafat and kill or detain its army". The blueprint, titled "The Destruction of the Palestinian Authority and Disarmament of All Armed Forces", was presented to the Israeli government by Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz on July 8 and envisages the suicide bombings by the Hamas militants as sufficient justification for it.

U.S. collusion in all this is palpable. It has bestowed upon Israel $92 billion in aid, more than any country has ever gifted another country. It allows Israel to use the whole range of U.S.-supplied weaponry - from F-16 jets to Apache helicopters - to kill and terrorize a population that does not even have ordinary armor to defend itself. When, at an early stage of this 18-month old assault, the Palestinian Authority asked for unarmed U.N. monitors to be stationed in the territories, the U.S. vetoed a Security Council resolution that had been supported by all the other members as well as the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Mary Robinson. The veto was supported by an overwhelming majority of the U.S. Congress. Defense Secretary Richard Holbrook simply declared that "no force would be supported without Israeli approval" and The New York Times of November 13, 2000 blandly declared that "Israel rightly resists any shift to a more international format," blithely ignoring the fact that even the Oslo agreements had been legitimized through the invocation of Security Council resolutions.

It has been clear from the beginning that Bush gave Sharon a free hand to do as he wishes, short of killing Arafat outright, much as Ronald Reagan had given Sharon, who was Defense Minister at the time, the green light for the invasion of Lebanon. This savage resolve has hardened since September 11. After a very brief fit of anxiety that the Arab states might not be able to deliver to the U.S. what it wanted so long as the brutal attacks on the Palestinians continued, the U.S. recognized the sheer spinelessness and subservience of those states and again threw its full weight behind Israel, just as Sharon took to calling Arafat "our own bin Laden". Already in mid-November 2001 Amnesty International had protested that the rate of Palestinian casualties had doubled over those two months. Haaretz on January 24, 2002 noted that no fewer than nine U.S. congressional delegations had visited the region in two weeks but none had even contemplated meeting Arafat. It also reported that Zinni, Bush's special envoy, was said to be carrying a letter to Arafat which contained a final warning that the U.S. would cut off relations with the Palestinian Authority if the latter does not accede to the U.S.-Israeli demands. At the time of this writing, the U.S. is said to be contemplating a whole range of options, from sanctions to the closing down of Palestinian Authority offices in Washington.

Prof. Alain Joxe, head of the French CIRPES (peace and strategic studies) wrote in Le Monde (December 17, 2001) that "the American leadership is presently shaped by dangerous right wing Southern extremists, who seek to use Israel as an offensive tool to destabilize the whole Middle East area". The lobby that favors a major assault on Iraq is still very strong in Washington, while people like U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell seem to be constrained by two factors: the consequences of such an escalation for internal balance in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia are unpredictable, and the U.S. really does not have a strong enough group of Iraqis to replace Saddam Hussein. The extremist Right would in any case like to extend the war not only to Iraq but also possibly Syria, on the charge that it harbors leaders of "terrorist" organizations. It is also significant that both the Hezbollah and the Hamas figured prominently in Bush's list of "terrorist organizations" in his State of the Union message in January. In all this, Israel is the one great reliable force in a region which the U.S. seems bent to tear apart.

The position of Arafat in all this is truly pathetic. The Oslo agreements have served the Israeli purposes and have now become redundant, as has Arafat himself. He handed over his security forces to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for training and complied, as best as he could, with the Israeli demands to control and smash the Hamas, which has nevertheless survived, and it is therefore ironic that he is being held responsible for attacks by an organization which he tried to co-opt with one hand, smash with the other. The corruptions, the essentially bureaucratic ambitions, the ineptitudes, of his close aides are now catching up with him. A leader who has discredited himself and yet symbolizes the organized political will of his people, he now faces the choice between petitioning for refuge elsewhere and running the risk of assassination. If the Americans have not yet allowed the Israelis to kill him, that is only because they do not know what comes after him.

The secret of the current Israeli savagery lies in the simple fact that ever since it began its occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip some 35 years ago it has sought to annex as much of the territory as possible with as little of the Arab population as possible. If it were simply to annex the occupied territories, the induction of some three and a half million Palestinians of those territories into this expanded Israel would in effect turn the "Jewish state" into a bi-national Arab-Jewish state, destroying the very raison d'être of this settler-colonial state. On the other hand, however, it cannot relinquish its claims to the land owing both to quasi-religious ideological reasons ("Biblical lands" for "the Chosen People") and, more prosaically, to the greed for land and water resources as well as a territorial expansionism which wishes to swallow even parts of Syria and Lebanon. Within the larger, overarching consensus, therefore, the Israeli establishment has long debated as to how much territory it ought to annex and in what form the rest is to be reconstituted, with how much of the population. This debate can be schematically summed up as an opposition between the "softer" Alon plan, usually identified with the Labor Party, of enforcing a permanent apartheid, and a "harder" Sharon plan, closer to the Likud's vision, of apartheid-plus-expulsion. Sharon's own journey from Labor to Likud and his present stewardship of a Labor-dominated Cabinet shows how little distance separates the two plans.

The "softer" plan envisaged annexing some 35 per cent of the territory and permitting the rest to become something resembling a Palestinian state with severely restricted sovereignty. The "harder" plan, as enunciated by the likes of Sharon, has advocated annexing close to 60 per cent of the territory, expelling as much of the population as possible and containing the rest in an unviable mini-state of numerous cantons where municipal authority would rest with local leaders and some form of central authority would be constituted for policing purposes and for coordination among local magnates. The softer plan was eventually contained in the so-called "peace process" initiated by the Oslo agreements of 1993 which Arafat, to his shame and discredit, accepted and set out to implement in collusion with his Israeli interlocutors and under U.S. supervision. This, plus the annexation of East Jerusalem, is what Barak, the former Labor Prime Minister, offered to Arafat as the final solution before breaking off negotiations when Arafat balked at the idea of surrendering East Jerusalem altogether. That refusal is what Bill Clinton has recently - and again - described as Palestine's "missed opportunity".

Having used the Oslo agreements to attain all the objectives of the "softer" plan and to discredit Arafat and his Palestine Liberation Organization in the process, Israel was then ready, by the second half of 2000, to make a bid for the "harder" plan. The deliberate provocation planned by the Barak-Sharon secret negotiations, which witnessed Sharon arriving in the compound of the Al-Aqsa mosque with 1,000 guards provided by Barak and which was then followed by the Israeli Army opening fire on a congregation of Palestinians the next day, was the beginning of this new phase involving the constant use of what Amnesty International and others have again and again characterized as "deliberately excessive force" designed to provoke Palestinian retaliation which would then pave the way for further Israeli assaults. The bipartisan military government - what Sharon calls "the government of all the Jewish people" - was organized to implement this audacious plan.

Born in the moment of expulsion of half the Palestinian population in 1948, Israel was now ready to carry out another "mini-48", annexing as much as possible, expelling as many as possible. If the whole of West Asia goes up in a ball of fire in the process, so much the better, so far as the Israelis are concerned. Arab tragedy has always been the Zionist's opportunity.

This, then, seems to be the end-game: topple Arafat (even kill him, if the U.S. would allow it), disorganize the Palestinian Authority, force as many Palestinians as possible to leave, choke the life-lines for the rest, establish a new system of local "chiefs", make a brave new world based upon 'life by the sword' for the Israelis, apartheid-plus-expulsion for the Palestinian. After the defeat of the great revolutionary upsurge of the 20th century, we are now witnessing, at the dawn of the 21st century, the expanded consolidation of a racist settler-colonial state modeled upon the classical colonialisms of the 19th. The enterprise may not be sustainable in the long run, but it promises to kill and mutilate tens of thousands of people in the process.